El votante infiel

¿Dónde se encuentran los votantes socialistas que en estos últimos cuatro años se han ido alejando electoralmente de su partido? En primer lugar, cabe hacer una diferenciación entre los denominados votantes desmovilizados y los llamados votantes infieles. Entre los primeros se incluyen aquellos que se mueven entre la abstención y la duda, es decir, que se muestran indecisos entre si abstenerse o votar y, en este caso, por qué partido hacerlo. Los segundos son aquellos que no sólo no dudan sino que ahora manifiestan su clara intención de votar por otro partido, en este caso, diferente al PSOE. La mejor opción para cualquier partido político que no tenga una fidelidad de voto del 100% (la mayoría, por no decir todos) es la de contar con un número superior de desmovilizados que de infieles. Por una razón: los primeros son más fáciles de recuperar electoralmente que los segundos, porque si bien se han distanciado del partido, no han llegado a romper psicológicamente con él (ruptura que sí manifiestan los infieles al verbalizar su intención de votar a otro partido).

Para su desgracia, el PSOE no sólo cuenta ahora con una fidelidad muy baja (45%), sino que, además, el porcentaje de infieles supera al de desmovilizados (31% frente a 23%). Una situación, la de ahora, que contrasta con la de mayo de 2009, cuando el PSOE no sólo contaba con un electorado mucho más firme (69%), sino que el número de desmovilizados superaba al de infieles (17% frente a 14%). Es decir, en estos dos últimos años, el PSOE ha sufrido tal sangría de votantes que, de mantenerse o aumentar, puede ser decisiva para decantar el resultado de las próximas elecciones generales de 2012. Las siguientes preguntas que caben hacerse ahora es si pueden los socialistas, y cómo, taponar esta hemorragia de votos para afrontar esos comicios del año que viene en mejores condiciones que las actuales para intentar revalidar su victoria de 2008. Ahora mismo, esto último ni siquiera se puede plantear.

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[Publicado por: Chabela]

Jose Pablo: cuenta, que modelo de Audi estas gastando? Tu te piensas que la tienes fácil, pero a ti también te ha de llegar tu DIA DESPUÉS . Por las dudas, ten tu boletito de avión en la billetera. Ja, ja, ja, ja, ja!!

[Publicado por: Maicon]

Con el Nunca Mais y el No a la Guerra espero que el Psoe vuelva a ganar... si no, un poco de agitación el jornada de reflexión y hecho

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[Publicado por: miguel]

La mayoría de los votantes infieles se irán a otras formaciones de izquierdas.