En promedio, la distribución de los porcentajes de votos válidos obtenidos por cada partido que ha caracterizado las elecciones generales celebradas en nuestro país ha sido de 75/25: 75 % de los votos repartidos entre PP y PSOE y 25 % entre el resto de partidos con representación parlamentaria. Ahora, sin embargo, la tendencia que apuntan los últimos barómetros de Clima Social de Metroscopia es que nuestra sociedad se puede estar encaminando hacia un tipo de reparto de los votos muy distinto: 50/50. O para ser más precisos, hacia una distribución en tres grupos 50/30/20: el 50 % correspondería a la suma de votos logrados por PP y PSOE; el 30% a la suma de votos de IU y UPyD; y el 20 % restante a los que corresponderían, en conjunto, a los partidos nacionalistas y regionalistas.
Esto es lo que cabe deducir de los resultados arrojados por la oleada de abril del Barómetro de Clima Social. Si se celebrasen ahora unos comicios generales, el PP obtendría un 24.5 % de los votos, el peor porcentaje logrado por este partido desde que, en 1989, compareció por primera vez con estas siglas en unas legislativas, y el PSOE un 23 %, su peor resultado histórico. Tanto IU como UPyD se verían beneficiadas electoralmente del fuerte descenso de los dos principales partidos y podrían casi duplicar —en el caso de la coalición rojiverde— o triplicar —UPyD— su resultado de 2011, de forma que, entre los dos, podrían hacerse con casi un tercio del total de votos válidos emitidos. Esta estimación hipotética de resultados parte, en todo caso, del supuesto de una participación históricamente sin precedentes en elecciones generales: en torno al 53 % tan solo.
La caída, hoy por hoy, de los dos grandes partidos se explica por el desapego que a su respecto manifiestan en estos momentos sus propios votantes. Entre los del PP, el 52 % cree que el Gobierno improvisa sobre la marcha, la mayoría (59 %) no confía en el Presidente Rajoy, son casi tantos los que aprueban su gestión como los que la desaprueban (49 % frente a 45 %) y los que tienen una impresión negativa como positiva del actual Gobierno (49 % frente a 42%). Al mismo tiempo, ya son cuatro los ministros —Alberto Ruiz Gallardón, Cristóbal Montoro, Ana Mato y José Ignacio Wert— cuya gestión obtiene más desaprobaciones que aprobaciones entre los votantes populares, y otros dos —Fátima Báñez y Luis de Guindos— que generan división de opiniones entre este electorado, cuya fidelidad a su partido, además, sigue registrando mínimos históricos (43 %). De hecho, un 15 % de quienes votaron al PP en los comicios generales de 2011 dice que, en estos momentos, no lo harían en ningún caso, lo que hace que este partido sea el que registra mayor porcentaje de rechazo entre su propio electorado (en términos absolutos este 15 % equivaldría, aproximadamente, a 1.6 millones de votos).
Por otro lado, la imagen del PSOE entre su electorado es incluso peor que la del PP entre el suyo y apenas registra variaciones respecto de oleadas anteriores: un 75 % de los votantes socialistas desaprueba la labor opositora de su líder, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, un 84 % no confía en él y la fidelidad de voto al partido ya solo es de un 34%.
Esta insatisfacción con el propio partido provoca, en ambos casos, y al menos por ahora, más tendencia a la apatía y al desentendimiento político que tentación de cambiar el voto hacia otras formaciones. Es cierto que un 7 % de votantes populares dice que ahora votaría a UPyD (unos 700.000 en números absolutos) y que un 15 % de votantes del PSOE dice que pasaría a engrosar las filas de IU (esto supondría detraer un millón de votos de las ya exiguas reservas socialistas); pero en ambos grupos de votantes predominan quienes optarían ahora por la abstención y quienes aparecen instalados en la duda sobre qué hacer en el caso de que hubiera elecciones. En el caso del PSOE, esta es una situación que viene arrastrando desde el descalabro sufrido el 20N. El PP, por su parte, ha ido experimentando desde su victoria en aquella fecha un lento pero continuo desgaste en el que cabe detectar tres claros puntos de inflexión: el primero, en abril de 2012, cuando se cumplían los 100 primeros días del Gobierno de Rajoy; el segundo, en verano de ese mismo año, cuando el Congreso (con los únicos votos de los diputados populares) aprobó el paquete de medidas anticrisis propuesto por el Gobierno; y el tercero, hace solo dos meses cuando ya se detectó este doble proceso de expulsión (hacia la abstención) y de reordenación (trasvases entre los diferentes electorados) que estaba experimentando el electorado español. Esta situación del PP guarda probablemente relación con el hecho de que la negativa percepción ciudadana de la situación económica española no solo no se ha atenuado desde el 20N, sino que incluso ha alcanzado registros históricos (que permanecen estables: un 95 % sigue calificándola como muy mala o mala). Además, en los dieciséis meses transcurridos, tampoco han mejorado otros indicadores del ánimo ciudadano, como por ejemplo la percepción sobre la situación de la economía familiar, la impresión sobre el momento que el paro dejará de crecer o la posibilidad de encontrar trabajo que manifiestan quienes están en paro.
INTENCIÓN DIRECTA DE VOTO
La intención directa de voto equivale a la voz de la calle. Es lo que los españoles responden de forma directa y espontánea cuando se les pregunta por su comportamiento electoral más probable. Es un dato clave para captar el estado de opinión predominante, pero debe ser interpretado con cautela pues no siempre refleja todo lo que los electores piensan, sino sólo lo que deciden revelar al ser preguntados. Distintos factores de coacción ambiental hacen que la verbalización de las distintas opciones ideológicas (su probabilidad de ser expresadas de forma espontánea y natural) no sea siempre la misma. La intención directa de voto (UDV) es, así, sometida a una serie de procesos de ajuste (a partir, fundamentalmente, del recuerdo de voto, de la fidelidad de voto, de la tasa de participación estimada, de la valoración por cada grupo de votantes de la gestión de cada partido y de sus líderes y de otros datos complementarios proporcionados por el sondeo sobre el estado de ánimo general de las personas entrevistadas) que permitan estimar cuál es, en esas circunstancias, el resultado más probablemente esperable. Obviamente, a partir de una misma IDV sería posible, utilizando otros criterios analíticos e interpretativos, obtener estimaciones de resultado electoral no necesariamente coincidentes con la que aquí se ofrece. La estimación de voto probable, por tanto, no es ya un dato directamente conseguido de la ciudadanía, sino una interpretación de sus declaraciones realizada a partir de unos supuestos determinados (lo que se conoce como “cocina electoral”). Aunque con frecuencia, por un uso descuidado, se confunda intención directa de voto y voto probable estimado, en realidad son cosas distintas. Una intención directa de voto muy elevada puede terminar, tras ser procesada, en una estimación de voto probable más reducida, o a la inversa. La IDV se compara con el resultado real que cada partido obtuvo sobre el Censo de españoles residentes (CER). Por su parte, los datos de voto estimado se comparan con el resultado real de cada partido sobre el total de votos válidos.
En esta oleada del Clima Social correspondiente al mes de abril de 2013 la intención directa de voto es la siguiente:
En twitter @JPFerrandiz
Fotografía: Election night crowd, Wellington, 1931. William Hall Raine. Photographic Archive, Alexander Turnbull Library.
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Publicado por: memory course | 11/05/2017 8:01:08
Esto del politiqueo es todo falsedad y corrupción.
No hay uno solo que merezca la pena y si lo hubiese, o se vuelve igual o lo quitan de enmedio.
Saludos!
Publicado por: Curso online Manipulador Alimentos | 25/06/2014 13:19:01
Es logico asociar a UPyD con exvotantes del PP (aunque también con los más "derechistas" del PSOE como Rosa diez), ya que políticamente y aunque digan que no son de derechas ni de izquierda (igual que decían los falangistas), en la práctica su programa y políticas son demagógicas, populistas y se encuentran incluso más a la derecha que las del PP. No nos dejemos engañar.
Publicado por: J.A.Jimenez | 19/05/2013 18:27:45
Mientras pague mis impuestos exijo; votar nulo, en blanco o no vota es otra cosa
Publicado por: Manuel Guisande | 13/05/2013 23:12:23
A iu le faltA por dar el salto final.cuanto mas tarde rajoy en dimitir mas votos va a perder. Va a ser epico
Publicado por: orbestroika | 03/05/2013 6:03:36
Yo lo que sigo sin entender es que aun salga un 50% de votantes a PSOE y PP. Sera por eso que decía la biblia : Si te roban un bolsillo pon el otro. ......o algo parecido
Publicado por: jelechal | 03/05/2013 0:25:58