‘I am sometimes a fox and sometimes a lion. The whole secret of government lies in knowing when to be the one or the other’ – Napoleon
The post-election negotiations to date have arguably exposed a lack of political nous and experience. The three junior leaders – Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Pablo Iglesias of Podemos and Albert Rivera of Ciudadados – have behaved like lions, convinced they are the alpha male. The one old sage in the mix, Popular Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy, has behaved like the fox, stalking his prey from the shadows, never putting himself in danger of reprisal or counter attack.
“Today we lack the support, but we are waiting for events to unfold.” Since this statement following his second meeting with King Felipe VI, events haven’t unfolded too badly for the PP. Yes, they are losing figures to corruption investigations, and they have watched most of the negotiations from the wings, but slowly and surely the conservative party has gained ground since declining the offer to form a government. By being behind the curtains Rajoy has not been tainted by the show on stage.
Since King Felipe VI invited election runner-up Sanchez to form a governing alliance, a mix of political naiveté, missteps and clichés has eroded much of the electorate’s goodwill towards the three parties in discussion. In the background the PP has moved to purge itself of corrupt members and unhelpful headlines. The result is that with the March 1st investiture session looming, Sánchez, Iglesias and Rivera are still battling to put together a viable governing deal and the PP is addressing one of the electorate’s principal concerns with the party. In order to keep the fox out of government, the young lions must seek sufficient consensus such that all can remain the leaders of their pride while sharing power.
Sánchez and Iglesias clashed on the election campaign and relations have not thawed. Iglesias has continually tried to seize the initiative by making offers to Sanchez that have been rebuked. One of the many big sticking points is the Catalan question. Podemos has the boldest position held by a national party. Some of the PSOE are sympathetic to the Podemos view while others cannot stomach the thought of holding a referendum. A critical mass would likely agree to a coalition if the Podemos position on Catalonia was dropped and the focus was switched to political reform and a center-left approach to the economy and social policy (which would probably lead to the Catalan question losing some of its potency). Alas Iglesias has so far not budged. The cliché of the left preferring to honour a principled position than to be in power is evident. Iglesias’s confrontational manner has also hindered progress and he needs to understand that in any coalition he will be a junior partner.
Rivera has placed himself at the center of discussions, but he has mishandled it. He kept on reiterating his pledge to not join a coalition and by overplaying his hand he has been increasingly drawn in to the only serious option: a coalition involving the PSOE. His boisterous approach, though, has left him no option but to make significant climb-downs in order to avoid forcing a rerun.
Observing the three lions bearing teeth and marking their ground, the fox Rajoy now has what remains of his pride briefing against the dangers to the economy and security of a left-wing alliance. In the public’s ears this will sound less cynical than a month or two ago and reflect what they see: the inability of the alpha males to agree in times of national urgency. In tandem the PP has begun the purge, issued notice that it will democratise its senior membership and use words like transparency and accountability
By taking the calculated risk of declining King Felipe VI’s invitation, stating he did not have the support to form a strong government following rejection by the PSOE and Ciudadanos, Rajoy has bought himself time. He has also given the other parties the spotlight and the chance to demonstrate their faults. He has watched predictable arguments and points of contention derail negotiations and damage all parties.
The only way to keep Rajoy and the PP out of power for four years is for Sánchez, Iglesias and Rivera to form a Coalition of the Losers or as I would prefer, The Second Transition Coalition. They must focus their fire on reforming politics and political institutions. A platform of increased accountability and transparency throughout politics and its apparatus can deliver what Spain needs. It will also demonstrate the left can work together and there is place for a liberal party. To do so the young lions must all lose some face.
On December 21st Rajoy was the other man, yesterday’s man, a symbol of the old politics that had been forever blunted with the 109 seats gained by Podemos and Ciudadanos. However, he is now ready to swoop in and, if Sánchez’s bid to become prime minister fails, make the PSOE and maybe Ciudadanos an offer they can't refuse, for refusal will lead to a rerun and Rajoy will make it clear that he was the only one who put the nation’s interests first. If any leader thinks negotiations have been uncomfortable so far, they will be worse with Rajoy, in lion mode, opposite.